First : A study by Harvard post-doc fellow Daniel J. Hopkins (pdf here ) which argues that the Bradley effect disappeared around 1996:
African Americans running for office before 1996 performed on average 2.7 percentage points worse than their polling numbers would indicate. Yet this effect subsequently disappeared. Although precision is limited because there were only 47 observations for 18 elections with black candidates in this period, these finding accord with theories of racial politics emphasizing the information environment. As racialzied rhetoric about welfare and crime receded from national prominence in the mid-1990s, so did the gap between polling and performance.
Second : Virginia is leaning towards Obama . Virginia hasn’t voted for a democratic presidential candidate since 1964. It wouldn’t even go for the Bubba tickets of the mid-90s. Some Virginia polls show Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain.
Even those who still believe i...
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What voters tell pollsters and what they do in the privacy of the voting booth may differ. Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American, lost the 1982 California gubernatorial race even though he had a double-digit lead in the polls. Some wonder if history will repeat itself in the case of Obama. » E-Mail This » Add to Del.icio.us
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From a reader:
Jonah:
Think about this - in 2000, GWB garndered 9% of the African American vote. In 2004, his percentage grew to 11%. Currently, all the polls show McCain winning only 3% to 5% of the AA vote. Is it not possible that many African Americans are engaging in the Bradley Effect, too? That is, they’re afraid to tell pollsters that they are AA and voting agains the first AA nominee for president? What if, on Nov. 4, McCain actually claims 6,7,8 or 9 percent of the AA v... more
Two recent events have increased my skepticism of the potency of the Bradley Effect (the theory that voters will tell pollsters they’ll vote for a black candidate and then, when the time comes, will vote against that candidate because of race). The first is an op-ed in today’s New York Times by Blair Levin , formerly of Tom Bradley’s 1982 campaign California gubernatorial campaign, which the effect is named after.
Blair notes that, contrary to how the story has since been... more
music The Dead
Science at Neumo’s
Tonight’s concert marks the final night of the Dead
Science’s weeklong Festival of Culture to celebrate their new album, Villainaire . A week sounds like an excessive party, but it’s appropriate for the album’s treatises on decadent excess (and time and morality and the Wu-Tang Clan). Conceptual stunts aside, the Dead Science are at the height of their musical superpowers on Villainaire , and t... more
My Public Property From: slog.thestranger.com Post Date: 2008-09-07 11:39:35
Another type of "bridge to nowhere" :
THE economies of Michigan, the Canadian province of Ontario, and even Ohio depend to an amazing extent on a very old , privately owned bridge which has virtually no security, and utterly no backup.
That would be the Ambassador Bridge, built in 1929, which connects Detroit and Windsor, and over which billions of dollars worth of mainly heavy, automotive-related goods flow every year. It is owned by a reclusive, 81-year-old multimillionaire n... more
Football!!!!!!!!!!! From: slog.thestranger.com Post Date: 2008-09-07 10:59:34
The 2008 NFL season begins* now!!!
Make your predictions, whine about how great soccer is, etc. in the comments.
*(The NYG/Washington game was boring and doesn’t count) ... more
The Obsession From: slog.thestranger.com Post Date: 2008-09-06 23:30:34
Being reasonable :
Archbishop Desmond Tutu has accused the Anglican church of allowing its "obsession" with homosexuality to come before real action on world poverty.
"God is weeping" to see such a focus on sexuality and the Church is "quite rightly" seen by many as irrelevant on the issue of poverty, he said.
It may be good to "accept that we agree to differ" on the gay issue, he said.
Being utterly mad :
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Gov. Sarah Palin’s churc... more
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