Organizing Update

Courtesy of the Politico , Barack Obama’s campaign has telegraphed the electoral focus of its fall campaign. Three are its highest profile defenses (PA, WI, MI), one is a Kerry state in which McCain runs particularly well (NH), and 14 are Bush 2004 states where Obama thinks he has an opportunity to gain on the previous map (IA, NM, OH, CO, VA, FL, MO, NV, IN, ND, NC, MT, GA, AK). Let’s take a look at how FiveThirtyEight breaks down each of these states in terms... more

I don’t have a big problem with the details of the McCain campaign’s pushback on yesterday’s LA Times / Bloomberg poll, which had shown Barack Obama ahead by 12 points. In contrast to some of the memos that the press was treated to from the desk of Mark Penn, the McCain team’s argument is relatively even-tempered and even-handed, fully acknowledging that their candidate does have a deficit to make up in the polls, if not the double digit margin implied by the LAT. At ... more

If yesterday was among Barack Obama’s best polling days of the year, today’s numbers have moved in the direction of John McCain. In addition to his drawing into a tie in the Gallup Tracking poll , the big number today is out of Missouri, where SurveyUSA shows McCain rebounding to a 7-point lead. SurveyUSA had conducted two Missouri surveys essentially simultaneously last month; they had shown Obama leading by 1 point and trailing by 2, respectively. I don’t have any cute... more

That title is not meant to be read rhetorically or sarcastically. But the correct answer is "both of them". The thing, however, is that they are somewhat opposite problems. The below is data compiled from Rasmussen Reports , consisting of over 7,000 likely voter interviews conducted within the past week. What I’m looking at is solely perceptions of the candidate among voters ... more