There is no new state polling today, but I have rolled forward the numbers based on the continual good performance for Barack Obama in the national trackers and the latest several editions of the Economist/YouGov poll, which is conducted on a weekly basis but updated on the Economist’s website only occasionally. The downtrend in Obama’s numbers since the July 4 holiday has now completely flattened out, though we will need a lot more information to determine whether it has reversed itself. I also fixed a small bug in the model that was causing the state-by-state implementation of the trendline adjustment to behave oddly. A few miscellaneous items: - Perhaps the most comprehensive study I have seen on the Bradley/Wilder effect so far in this cycle was conducted by Harvard political scientist Dan Hopkins and is available for your perusal here (PDF). Hopkins’ conclusion: the Bradley Effect may have been real in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but does n...
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President-elect Barack Obama unveiled his national security team today, nominating Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of state and choosing Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates to stay on as Pentagon chief.... more
Chicago, 1 Dic (Notimex).- El presidente electo de Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, anunció hoy la designación Hillary Clinton, quien fuera su rival por la candidatura presidencial del Partido Demó leer más ... more
If there is one message President-elect Barack Obama's transition team has broadcast about Cabinet picks, it is that ethnicity and gender will not be the first considerations when filling the slots. Credentials over tokenism, after all, was a fundamental principle of Obama's presidential...... more
Judging polls From: politicospolitics.com Post Date: 2008-11-05 20:44:02
A professor at Fordham University has compiled an analysis of which polls were most accurate, below. (h/t Houston Chronicle blog).
Generally, polls that I like most - Rasmussen and GWU/Battleground did pretty well (came out in top 10). Pew did very well as well, but this is based on their last “apology” poll, since the one published three days earlier had a 12 point race - there is no way things changed that much between the pre-final and final poll.
* refers to polls ... more
What voters tell pollsters and what they do in the privacy of the voting booth may differ. Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American, lost the 1982 California gubernatorial race even though he had a double-digit lead in the polls. Some wonder if history will repeat itself in the case of Obama. » E-Mail This » Add to Del.icio.us
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From a reader:
Jonah:
Think about this - in 2000, GWB garndered 9% of the African American vote. In 2004, his percentage grew to 11%. Currently, all the polls show McCain winning only 3% to 5% of the AA vote. Is it not possible that many African Americans are engaging in the Bradley Effect, too? That is, they’re afraid to tell pollsters that they are AA and voting agains the first AA nominee for president? What if, on Nov. 4, McCain actually claims 6,7,8 or 9 percent of the AA v... more
Two recent events have increased my skepticism of the potency of the Bradley Effect (the theory that voters will tell pollsters they’ll vote for a black candidate and then, when the time comes, will vote against that candidate because of race). The first is an op-ed in today’s New York Times by Blair Levin , formerly of Tom Bradley’s 1982 campaign California gubernatorial campaign, which the effect is named after.
Blair notes that, contrary to how the story has since been... more
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The Obama Eighteen From: fivethirtyeight.com Post Date: 2008-06-25 18:45:00
Courtesy of the Politico , Barack Obama’s campaign has telegraphed the electoral focus of its fall campaign. Three are its highest profile defenses (PA, WI, MI), one is a Kerry state in which McCain runs particularly well (NH), and 14 are Bush 2004 states where Obama thinks he has an opportunity to gain on the previous map (IA, NM, OH, CO, VA, FL, MO, NV, IN, ND, NC, MT, GA, AK). Let’s take a look at how FiveThirtyEight breaks down each of these states in terms... more
I don’t have a big problem with the details of the McCain campaign’s pushback on yesterday’s LA Times / Bloomberg poll, which had shown Barack Obama ahead by 12 points. In contrast to some of the memos that the press was treated to from the desk of Mark Penn, the McCain team’s argument is relatively even-tempered and even-handed, fully acknowledging that their candidate does have a deficit to make up in the polls, if not the double digit margin implied by the LAT. At ... more
Today’s Polls, 6/25 From: fivethirtyeight.com Post Date: 2008-06-25 14:13:00
If yesterday was among Barack Obama’s best polling days of the year, today’s numbers have moved in the direction of John McCain. In addition to his drawing into a tie in the Gallup Tracking poll , the big number today is out of Missouri, where SurveyUSA shows McCain rebounding to a 7-point lead. SurveyUSA had conducted two Missouri surveys essentially simultaneously last month; they had shown Obama leading by 1 point and trailing by 2, respectively. I don’t have any cute... more
That title is not meant to be read rhetorically or sarcastically. But the correct answer is "both of them". The thing, however, is that they are somewhat opposite problems. The below is data compiled from Rasmussen Reports , consisting of over 7,000 likely voter interviews conducted within the past week. What I’m looking at is solely perceptions of the candidate among voters ... more
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