I appreciated Steve Waldman’s article at his excellent blog Interfluidity , which was also posted at Naked Capitalism . I have a slightly different take on the topic, which I expressed in the comments section of each blog:
Steve, I think we had two, maybe three things go on here. First, the “originate to sell” model failed because basic underwriting was not done well. The incentives against failure were not left with the originator, i.e., having to hold onto a large equity piece.
If the underwriting had been done well, the next problem would be weak financing structures on the part of the certificate buyers. Many were leveraged higher than prudent, even on “super seniors.”
Finally, the servicing models are often flawed. There has to be adequate pay for servicing and special servicing, or else loss mitigation efforts will be poor.
Risks were taken and avoided, but many of the seemingly avoided risks come back when the one guaranteeing the avoid...
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Seventeen Days LaterFrom: alephblog.com
Post Date: 2007-03-21 20:19:05
We’ve had seventeen market sessions since the blowup in Shanghai and we are closing in on the level prior to the blowup. My broad market portfolio is down 40 basis points, versus the S&P being down 90 basis points.
This doesn’t mean that everything is back to normal. There are still significant imbalances in the financial system. The carry trade, CDOs, and private equity will yet have their comeuppance. The only question is when it will happen.
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more He Who Pays The Piper Calls The TuneFrom: alephblog.com
Post Date: 2007-03-21 20:01:49
There’s an article in the Wall Street Journal today entitled, “ Credit-Ratings Firms Get Caught Up In Subprime Meltdown .” In some ways I anticipated this in my article at RealMoney, “ Snarls in Insurance Investigation, Part 2 .”
I experienced the difficulties that the ratings agencies had in 2001-2002 as a corporate bond manager. They are paid by the issuers, and have a conflict of interest. They can argue that they are zealous to protect their reputations, ...
more Final Step and My Portfolio DecisionsFrom: alephblog.com
Post Date: 2007-03-19 20:44:30
Here’s the final list that I worked with in making my trades. Working up from the bottom of my list, I decide on what to sell. If I’m not selling something that rates low on my quantitative screen, I have to have an explanation as to why I am keeping it.
What I Am Not Selling
St. Joe – This doesn’t score well. The idea here is the land is considerably more valuable than the share price would indicate.
SPX Corp, Sara Lee – These are still in turnar...
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