Quick hits:
1. Prediction: 54-46 for Clinton, with about +10 or so in the delegate count. Logic: polls show Obama solidifying a 40-45% base and he’ll get about 1/3 of the undecideds. My gut feeling is that PA is kind of like NH - Hillary’s numbers are deflated by Hillary voters claiming to be undecided when they’re not. Ultimately, this changes little because an Obama win in NC and tie in IN brings Obama’s pledged delegate lead back up to about 150, with all small states remaining after that.
2. Around 6:07 you can see me shake hands with Obama.
3. In the comments to this post, Belle Lettre claims I’m a bigger nerd than Jeremy Freese. I bet you didn’t think it was possible.
4. The rest of the primaries: PA will be canceled by IN/NC. WV/KY will be offset by OR/MT/SD/Guam. Hillary will get a net gain from Puerto Rico. By the end, Hillary will reduce the delegate gap from 150 to about 130. Of course, the trickle of Obama add-on delegates and superde...
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