james picerno submits singleday rallies of 900 points or more in the dow jones industrials tend to get our attention in part because theyre the unicorn of market action often imagined but never seen. well we saw a unicorn yesterday. in fact weve seen a lot of things lately that just a few months ago were the stuff of dreamsor nightmares. no wonder then that this reporter is at risk of losing pers...
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james picerno submits the extreme in finance and economics is by definition rare and that makes it valuable for study. the crisis of late is no exception. its one thing to analyze markets when everything is running smoothly but sunny days dont offer much if any insight about what to expect during hurricanes.complete story......
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james picerno submits it all looks so easy on paper but in real time using real money making strategic investment choices is hard. especially during a banking crisis that threatens the broader global economy. each january we offer an historical chart of how the major asset classes fared on a calendar year basis starting with the recently ended year and going back several years. heres what we publ...
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james picerno submits if not the decade depending on how all this plays out. in any case carl weinberg chief economist at high frequency economics cuts through the fog and goes right to the heart of the challenge in a quote from todays new york times the core problem is that the smart people are realizing that the banking system is broken. nobody knows who is holding the tainted assets how much ...
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james picerno submits the classic conundrum in strategic investing is that relative bargains in the stock market tend to arrive when buyers go on strike. theres no mystery as to underlying cause as current events remind. consider our chart below which shows monthend trailing equity dividend yields for the major regions of the developed economies. the trend of late is clear yields are rising dramat...
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james picerno submits the rolling crisis that has become the daily routine of late has no obvious and immediate solution but at least we can be clear about how we arrived in this thankless position. and maybe just maybe we can learn a thing or two about policymaking for the years ahead. it wont be easy but progress never is especially in the dismal science. facing up to reality offers no silver b...
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new reverse mortgage loan limits update john yedinak the national reverse mortgage lenders association nrmla just sent out an email confirming that the new hecm loan limit will be 417000. right now the target date is november 1st but this is not a set deadline just a target date. reverse mortgage daily bair turns onceobscure fdic into power center in bank crisis alison fitzgerald and aliso...
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james picerno submits this mornings employment report for september is the worst yet for this cycle and well probably see even deeper pain in the months to come. but for now the last shred of hope that maybe perhaps somehow the u.s. could avoid recession has been definitively dashed once and for all in todays jobs update. nonfarm payrolls slumped by 159000 last month the biggest monthly loss for ...
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james picerno submits yesterdays huge tumble in the stock market has spread fear far and wide among investors your editor included. but focusing on the here and now isnt the answer. this too shall pass but not anytime soon. whats a strategicminded investor to do nothing at the moment. if you havent been trimming back on risk in your portfolio nows not the time to start. easy to say tough to do. b...
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the bailout died. the lefties i correspond withaall detested the bailout last week this week they detest nancy pelosi bizarrely if encouragingly for being too partisan if i read them righta andalament the bills failure to pass. last week they and a libertaria naactually aconvinced me to oppose said bailoutatoo despite my initial inclination to dismiss them as merely andrew mellon imparting herb...
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james picerno submits surveying the financial and economic landscape looks increasingly like an exercise in watching the perfect storm unfold. todays updates on durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims only strengthen the sentiment. durable goods first theyre down. big time. the government reports that seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods slumped 4.5 in august the biggest percen...
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james picerno submits financial crises bank implosions and chaos generally dont often inspire. but every debacle has a silver lining. one of those linings shows up these days in higher interest rate spreads. investors willing to wade into the riskier realms of debt are being paid for their troubles or so one could argue. as our chart below shows you get more for your money these days when buying ...
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james picerno submits the dollar was crushed yesterday. the u.s. dollar index dropped more than 2 reversing whatever gains were left from the nowevaporated summer rally. the verdict it would seem is in. the forex market isnt amused by the prospect of adding 700 billionplus to the already bloated u.s. budget deficit. jay bryson global economist at wachovia securities summed it up neatly in a note ...
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james picerno submits the financial industry has been transformed to a degree that few thought possible only a few weeks before. but this is all a sideshow to the real story of change as it relates to the economy and deciding how main street will fare in the months and years ahead. still its hard not to gawk at the spectacle that is wall street. first observation wall street as it existed just a f...
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james picerno submits first it was bear stearns. then the government bailed out fannie mae fnm and freddie mac fre. before the ink was dry on that deal uncle sam loaned 85 billion to insurance giant aig in exchange for an 80 stake in the company. along the way the fed has been throwing money every which way depending on the day. but wait theres more. in the last 24 hours a new round of government...
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james picerno submits a bit of good news on the real estate front would be ideal right about now. alas todays updates on the housing market are once more disappointing. housing starts for august posted another hefty decline the census bureau reports. the 6.2 drop in annualized starts last month vs. july isnt the biggest decline on record but its still hefty. more troubling is the fact that the dec...
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moral hazard has been reestablished on wall street.a wsj.com how long can the fed remain firm with the remaining investment banksa nytimes.com bank of american bac shareholders are disappointed with the deal for merrill lynch mer.a dealbreake r.com gold man sachs gs and morgan stanley ms look to be the last banks standing.a wsj.com the lehman brothers leh bankruptcy at a glance.a dealbreaker.com ...
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james picerno submits how many times must this lesson be learned apparently theres no limit when it comes to nave and overconfident investors which is to say that the need for tutoring is vast and unending. sad and frustrating but still true. two examples from todays papers remind once more that diversification is too often ignored assuming its recognized at all. chalk it up to greed and fear and...
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james picerno submits the u.s. stock market has been battered twisted and otherwise assaulted over the past year or so. from the outside the point requires no elaboration for those with equity positions of one type or another. but what has the havoc wrought on the internal sector allocations in search of some perspective we crunched the numbers to see whats changed over the past two years in larg...
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james picerno submits theres a bear market in prices but the bull is alive and kicking when measured in risk premia albeit in varying degrees depending on the asset class. consider two examples in our chart below which illustrates the history of yield premia for high yield bonds and equity reits relative to the 10year treasury yield. clearly mr. market is offering a bigger cushion of safety in th...
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bca research food and energy prices a prolonged correction underway capital spectator pondering real yields remember that this gives a good sense of what our 300b forex reserves earn. mint divestment drive may breathe life into market indias equity capital markets could see a revival around the fourth quarter of this calendar year octoberdecember if the government goes ahead with reforms as...
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oil rises to record on weakening dollar morgan stanley outlook bloombergoil scores biggest daily dollar gain on record marketwatc hinternati onal agency urges the start of an energy revolution nytrichard rainwater turns bearish on oil. for now timewhich inflation rate greg mankiwwallop slope of hope. at least there is someone happy to see prices go downthe oil shock of 2008 econbrowserabu dhabi f...
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the humans behind the google money machine nythedge funds cut oil bets as prices rose cftc probed bloombergetf update nuclear takes the lead a dash of insightconsumer mortgages 90 days past due big picturemorgan stanley merrill lehman ratings cut by sp bloombergthe allure and risk of emerging markets capital spectatorfed on hold till the fall naked capitalismfinding a historical edge in the stock ...
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we apologize for an admittedly less than comprehensive linkfest today. thanks for your patience. a rift in the world of fundamental indexation. wsj.com under watch libor and oil. wsj.com ibid is 100 a barrel oil going to be hard to sustain economists view real time economics do i think that libor is perfect nobut libor is not nearly as flawed as the wsj makes it out to be. market movers also ...
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peak water and a new wind etf. big picture basis pointing eight lessons from the great bear markets. ft alphaville adam warner talks technical analysis in multiple time frames with authorblogger brian shannon. daily options report emotions are contrarian indicators marketbeat stocks have dropped despite stability in high yield credit spreads. bespoke investment group ..chipotles top executive...
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