ive noted a number of times that traffic on this blog has increased significantly during periods of market downturns frequently topping out just as markets bottom. traffic is currently running roughly 33 above normal with thursday ...
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mike t is our resident memberphilosopher. he left a comment last week that got me thinking
to further belabor any more metaphors as if that were possible your job is to not only show us the trader behind the curtain but to teach us all the tricks of oz.
the most difficult notion for me to grasp but clearly the most essential for me to move on to the next level of trading expertise is the notion t... [Show More]
with earnings season once again around the corner this perspective on the market has extra relevance
source decision point
once in a blue moon the market trades at prices which take it to a value based buying opportunity. but notice that looking back it hasnt for a long time. according to this chart if we do revisit that scenario again we would be at levels last seen in 1996 sp 500 650.
which rem... [Show More]
with all the rampant volatility of the last few days its easly to lose focus on the larger structure.a tuesday the sp 500 tested its 200 month moving average wednesday it broke it.a lets view the monthly sp 500 and dow jones index charts.
sp 500 monthly
after price violated the 50 month ema to the downside the eventual initial target was indeed the rising 200 month sma im just shocked at how qu... [Show More]
brett steenbarger submits a quick scan of data suggests that slightly over half of all nyselisted stocks made fresh 52week lows on monday continuing the expansion of weakness described in the recent indicator update. such broad weakness is not common. indeed since 1965 i could only find six trading days out of nearly 11000 in which more than 50 of all nyse stocks made new annual lows. these days w... [Show More]
in the last few weeks we have seen a number of swings of hundreds of points in the market indexes. how does the currentrecent volatility rank in historical terms here are two perspectiv es.
dr. brett steenbarger measuring the dfferences among daily highs lows and closes of the sp 500 cash index finds october 2008 to be the third most volatile monthpair of months since 1962. as we can see t... [Show More]
brett steenbarger submits since july weve seen commodity prices collapse top chart the u.s. dollar rally furiously versus the euro middle chart and highyield bond prices collapse bottom chart. its not exactly the inflationary scenario that some envisioned as the result of the rescue legislationat least not yet. this is a market that is punishing anything associated with risk which explains the mas... [Show More]
brett steenbarger submits in the last sector update we found that most of the sectors were not in a trending mode as measured by the technical strength measure. with mondays large drop tuesdays snapback and wednesdays mixed session the sectors have moved off their neutral levelsmaterials 200industrial 280consumer discretionary 140consumer staples 80energy 320health care 260financial 280tech... [Show More]
in the second post in this series here is the first post we took a look at personality traits that are associated with risktaking particularly in the financial domain. this final installment in the series will examine some of the ...
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brett steenbarger submits a tip of the hat to decision point for this nice graphic of investor sentiment as measured by the american association of individual investors. heres the link to the free trial information it ends on october 5th. note how the proportion of bulls to bears bottom pane has steadily declined from 2004 to the present. that ratio is particularly low at present as you can see b... [Show More]
brett steenbarger submits the last sector review found more evidence of mixed performance and sector rotation. here are the technical strength figures for the sectors as of the close on friday. recall that technical strength is a proprietary measure of trending that quantifies how well a price series follows an upward or downward path. scores between 100 and 100 suggest little trending behavior pe... [Show More]
thumbs up to traderfeeds dr. brett and his post day and night sessions this bear isnt nocturnal.a dr. brett shows that the resiliency bullishnes s of the overnight market relative to the daytime market thatai discussed inamy post the markets are nocturnal is still intact.
in a nutshell bullish trends in the stock market tend to play themselves out in the overnight market yesterdays close to today... [Show More]
had enough therapy Post Source: blog.afraidtotrade.com Posted: Sep 25 2008 02:43:08
i came across a relatively new blog on psychology with a unique perspective and title that i wanted to share with you entitled had enough therapy written by stuart schneiderman an executive life coach.
though the blog is not entirely focused on trading but touches a variety of topics from politics to sports schneiderman has written a few standout posts on trading discipline and that mirrors the in... [Show More]
brett steenbarger submits i noticed that the average daily range for the sp 500 index spy over the past week has been quite elevated compared with its norm. so i took a ratio of the average fiveday highlow range and expressed it as a percentage of the average 50day high low range. during the last week the average range for spy has been twice its 50day average.since 2000 weve only seen 43 occasions... [Show More]
in an amazing turn of events the dow jones and the sp 500 stock market indexes ended one of the most turbulent weeks in their history virtually unchanged in percentage terms while the nasdaq and russell 2000 closed higher on the week with the russell increasing almost 5.00
lets take a quick look at the week that will live in history.a i mentioned on mondays post use extreme caution in the week ahe... [Show More]
this detailed chapterbychapter pracis of dan arielys predictably irrational the hidden forces that shape our decisions is a guest post by george gibson a colleague of mine at xerox. george originally posted it on our internal blogs as a series and i found it so much fun to read i asked if i could repost it on ribbonfarm. so here you go.
chapter 1 the truth about relativity
this was clearly the ... [Show More]
insert latest lehman rumor here.a the latest news is that is does not look good.a wsj.com nytimes.com
what might a lehman brothers leh bankruptcy look likea dealbook
why doesnt someone just start a new company and coax as many of lehmans employeesas you can to jump shipa the stalwart
not enough regulation or the wrong kind of regulationa marginal revolution
we should treat our financial system wit... [Show More]
brett steenbarger submits when we think of market volatility we generally focus on the broad market and such gauges as the vix. in the chart above however were looking at average daily trading range for 2007 blue bars and 2008 red bars across the various sp 500 sectors.note how 2008 stands out from 2007 in its increased volatility. indeed if we just look at the sp 500 index spy alone we can see th... [Show More]
brett steenbarger submits regional variation in bank performance with the help of the barchart site i revisited the performance of commercial banks as a function of their geography. specifically i looked at the number of banks with stocks that are up on the year and the number of banks that are down 50 or more on the year. heres how it shakes out by regionsouthwest 8 banks up 2 down bignortheast... [Show More]
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